It has to do with how the so-called “blue” states in federal elections frequently favor liberal Democrats, while “red” states generally support conservative Republicans.
However, logic says it should be the other way around.
Liberal Red-State Voters Are Eating Their Cake and Having It Too
Think about it. Why are liberal Democratic voters in blue states, who often espouse Big Government’s social programs in the spirit of a redistribution of the nation’s wealth, satisfied to receive less money back from the US Treasury annually than they pay in? That does not sound like the “Fair Deal” that FDR, the quintessential blue-state Democrat, advocated during the recovery of the 1930s.
In doing so, liberal Democrats allow voters in red states to eat their cake and have it too – first, in winning elections and then receiving more back from the federal treasury than they pay in to boot.
Economist Publishes Correlation Between Red States vs. Higher Federal Receipts
“Hey! Blue-staters. Are you sick and tired of subsidizing red-state welfare?” is the way the “Attorney Center” online headline expressed the political anomaly on February 11, 2011.
In “The Incidental Economist,” Aaron Carroll, who actually worked out a statistical correlation coupling redder states with higher federal receipts, explains his disconnect this way:
“Yes, federal taxes obviously move money from some states to others. States don’t get exactly the money back that they pay. But it seems that (1) the more conservative states would like to do away with federal taxes and redistribution, and at the same time (2) they are often taking in the most government spending.”
Tax Foundation Establishes Red-State Advantage in 2007 Report
According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation in a comprehensive 2007 report, “Federal Taxes Paid vs. Spending Received by States: 1981-2005,” in fiscal 2005 the leading 10 states that recouped more than each dollar sent to the federal treasury and by how much were:
- New Mexico $2.03
- Mississippi $2.02
- Alaska $1.84
- Louisiana $1.78
- West Virginia $1.76
- North Dakota $1.68
- Alabama $1.66
- South Dakota $1.53
- Kentucky $1.51
- Virginia $1.51
Red States Showed Colors in 2004 and 2008 Elections
Every one of those top-10, fiscally-minded, conservative red states, whose citizens were subsidized by the federal government, voted for the Republican Party’s Bush/Cheney ticket in 2004 and every red state but New Mexico and Virginia voted for the McCain/Palin ticket in 2008. Is their homage to more frugal government in America hypocritical? Is Sarah Palin’s adoration of the supposedly frugal Founding Fathers on the level?
Red and Blue States States Appear to be Acting Against Principles
The "Fourth Branch" online sums up the political riddle this way, according to Ezra Klein in The Washington Post of April 10, 2010:
“There is a very strong correlation, then, between a state voting for Republicans and receiving more in federal spending than its residents pay to the federal government in taxes (the rust belt and Texas being notable exceptions). In essence, those in blue states are subsidizing those in red states.
“Both red and blue states appear to be acting politically in opposition to their economic interests. Blue states are voting for candidates who are likely to continue the policies of red state subsidization while red states are voting for candidates who profess a desire to reduce federal spending (and presumably red state subsidization).”
Gallup Report Shows Conservatives Outnumber Liberals in US
A related study of February 25, 2011, by Gallup.com provides further evidence that voters in red states are self-professed conservatives in political ideology, with those in blue states leaning toward liberal views. Applying the Gallup results to the squeaky-close election of 2004, the top 10 “conservative” states voted Republican, while all but one of the top 10 “liberal” states voted Democratic.
Conservatives are much more numerous relatively than liberals, according to the Gallup report. Among the top 10 conservative states, 45 percent or more of voters identify themselves of that persuasion. Only 31 percent espouse liberal political inclinations in the top 10 liberal states. And why not, a wag might ask. There is a federal bonus for wearing the red badge of courage.
Political Ideologies in US Tend to be Stable over Time
Furthermore, the Gallup consulting firm says that generally, “Ideology and self-identification tends to be stable over time. As a result, the most and least conservative states have not changed much in recent years.”
In judging political contests, however, that can be deceiving. Between 2008 and 2010, there was only a one-percentage-point change in political ideology affiliation by voters; but in party affiliation, preference for the Republican Party shifted upward by three points per state, according to Gallup. Obviously, the Republicans became more energized.
President Obama Faces Shift to Conservative Ideology in 2012 Election
As President Obama scurries about the White House looking for the effective political alchemy to get elected for a second term in 2012, he faces what Gallup describes as a shift to conservatism in America. When one throws in what seems to be a cash bonus for conservative red-state voters, it becomes understandable that prospects sometimes make the President sing the blues.
Howard Bryan Bonham - Howard Bryan Bonham is a former daily newspaper editor and award-winning financial writer.
